Ms. Frugal Asian Finance Ill stick with the stock market thank you very much. Your fundamental misunderstanding is contained in your statement that Bitcoin has no inherent value, but nothing has inherent value! Dr-In-Debt January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! Why Bitcoin is Stupid (Don't Put All Your Eggs In One Basket?) If you're careful to invest in an altcoin that has a clear value proposition (ripple comes to mind) you can set it and check once a day at most. I noticed that you didnt deny that you are invested in Bitcoin. This idea that you HAVE TO OWN ONE FULL BITCOIN is madness. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. This is also wrong, Zimbabwe did not abolish taxation yet the worth of Zimbabwe dollar has vanished anyway. Im 100% with you when you say investing in bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) isnt smart. Well, imagine you are in 1963 and you hear the speech I have a dream from Martin Luther King on abolishing slavery and you ask the question Why do you think this will happen?. Of course get out NOW. ), Im in the same boat. https://twitter.com/SunnyStartups/status/946711941250273280/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Findia-falsely-condemns-bitcoin-as-ponzi-scheme-flawed-logic, A man is not a financial plan The act of speculating on an asset is what drives it to its proper price; they are critical players in the process of price discovery. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Im not an IT guy of engineer so I could be wrong, but the energy issue and the safety issues you mention makes Bitcoin tera incognito for all intelligent human beings. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). However, cryptocurrency is what incentivizes the network to secure a blockchain, so theyre two sides of the same coin. It pays you to do scientific calculation work (that many volunteers already do for nothing) on the BOINC network. For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. Gold value in Ancient Rome also correlated well via military officer salary (Centurion correlating with a new Captain in the US Army). Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. ), but not because they did anything useful or produced any money and value to society,. So Im going with no. The EntreLeadership Podcast is a must-listen for any entrepreneur or business leader looking to take their business to the next level. Currency is by far the most obvious application. It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. No one foresaw that VHS would win, and yet Betamax was gone not many years later. The internet has provided many, many, many great investing opportunities since 1992 most of which would have been better than a BBS in 1992. LennStar TO_Ont So we need more credible people to speak out against it. That means an implied 100% cash-on-cash return every year. Why do I trust the dollar? So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. Started by kayvent. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. January 11, 2018, 12:03 am. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? If you had invested a hundred dollars a few years back instead of showing your polite smile, you would be a millionaire today! It stays below the prior high for decade at least, sometimes forever. Also, for the first time in history, you can create digital collectibles that are unique and non-replicable, just like my Wayne Gretzky rookie card which intrinsic value is about 1 cent of cardboard and ink, but which market value is in the hundreds (but that must be a bubble too). But boy, are you wrong on this one. It remains to be seen. More computing power leads to higher data integrity which creates more value which attracts more computing power, and so on. A stock is a share of an actual company, bound by rules and regs (however imperfectly administered, at least they exist). Unfortunately for most people that think they are missing out on everything, they are being lead to Coinbase and only buying the cheapest tokens available, namely Litecoin because Ethereum and Bitcoin have gotten so expensive. Herd behavior? So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. No one knows what the stable value of bitcoin will end up, and betting in either direction just seems like a fools errand. Do you know the state of US debt recently? It is cool. A good analogy is a life raft on the ocean vs an aircraft carrier. And you should be prepared for it. So buying tulip bulbs is not insane at a reasonable price. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. I can see scenarios where some of these platforms develop staying power and become increasingly valuable for the actual work that they are needed to accomplish. They have been making a killing. MMM could have just posted a video like this where a not-famous-youtuber is boasting about how he is going to start investing 3% of everything he makes into Bitcoin for his nest egg because he missed out when he first opened his Bitcoin wallet 4 or 5 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubnMyPZS86E. January 3, 2018, 9:23 am. I agree with MMMs eloquent outlining of the major concerns with investing in cryptocurrencies. That is where we are with Bitcoins. Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. And whenever the price bubble pops, you also have a $2700 paperweight. Then Ill stick with what works for me now. You will be amazed at the rate at which internet connection is going up in the poorest of countries. No one can say for sure whether or not the problems can be resolved and a highly transactable and stable currency may emerge. Definitely not a speculative bubble. Ill go with Ponzi Scheme. When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? Bitcoin CANNOT shelter you, pay dividends nor feed you. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Amazing. January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. Consequently, theres a very limited way in which gold can feed you (and bitcoin cant), Uberartist January 3, 2018, 9:04 pm. This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. Shit. Exchanges and funds get looted (or looted by the operators) all the time. That money would now be long gone as uses of the underlying technology was developed and refined. No difference there. US is just one country in this big bad world, and not vice versa! In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. You disagree. Unless, of course, it starts rolling *in* terrible new earnings compared to price, which is certainly possible. Poor people have never initiated a tax loophole. This is Part 1 of 2. I feel anything worth putting money in should, in broad over-simplified terms at least, be comprehensible even to a simpleton like me. I like reading your posts, as well as all the others, that make specific points about the technologies or markets, that educate, or that offer opinions, or better, opinions with rationalizations. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked). In the US we call it the full faith and credit of the United States. All points noted. I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. Slaves to banks and few elites? Apparently they didnt like my edits, where I called out rogue nations for propping up BitCoin as a means to bypass sanctions. Ask me Anything! I dont know, why gold and not platinum or palladium? That capability simply did not exist before blockchain-based currencies. Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it I agree this is a subpar post on MMM, and I am sad to see that he doesnt yet get it when it comes to decentralized currency networks. Bitcoin is used for some pretty awful things, the accountant at my dads prior employer stole $500,000+ and likely hid it from the authorities. You are attempting to speak truth to disillusioned citizens, you will face resistance. EvoInvestor As platforms. I was so sad that I missed out again ;). ), but to include gold bullion is not quite fair. Video compression tech. That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. And society is comprised of them, and nothing else. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Complaints and insults generally wont make the cut here, but by all means write them on your own blog! But anyway.you need a little imagination to see the value it has for the first world, because it has to arise from something other than a replacement for something preexisting. at best. Market timing is a fools errand anyway. Sure, an anonymous way to exchange money and escape the eyes of a corrupt government is a good thing for human rights. A bit frothy? The blockchain is only 1 part of Bitcoin. For more casual sampling, have a look at this complete list of all posts since the beginning of time or download the mobile app. Or? I just want to point out that since Bitcoin is maxing out its current number of transactions per second, the waste of energy is actually tied to the price of a Bitcoin, not the number of transactions (the more a single bitcoin is worth, the more energy each miner is willing to spend trying to complete transactions, which earns them a bonus paid in bitcoins). In my personal opinion, Bitcoin just seems like another form of a financial institution that is trying to say its not an institution when it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck so it must be a bank, no?! Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. Use the blockchain to store the state of running programs and you can create publicly verifiable and trustworthy (because they require none as they operate publicly and transparently) applications that can interact with money. Were human, so human. One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. Because it is. Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. No. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. These are all things that people have bought in the past, and driven to completely irrational prices, not because they did anything useful or produced any money and value to society, but solely because they thought they would be able to sell them to someone else for more in the future. If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. But it also has some ideology built in the assumption that giving national governments the ability to monitor flows of money in the financial system and use it as a form of law enforcement is wrong. This separation is important becausethe usefulness of Blockchain is the primary justification people use for the big dumb Bitcoin lottery. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. This one is just simply incorrect. Go ahead and click on any titles that intrigue you, and I hope to see you around here more often. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? Id like to address each. January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. BigTasty1212 Why? Also true. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. You could always follow the Long Island Iced Tea model: 1. I dont invest in Bitcoin, but Ive had this sob story in the back of my mind about how I missed out when I decided sometime pre-2010 to NOT mine Bitcoin. Cut him some slack especially as he makes SUCH GOOD POINTS! Theyre not very good experts. The thing these pro-crypto guys never properly address is that even if we accept that cryptocurrencies may someday be useful, what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache Also, USD is not the only fiat in this world, although many Americans cannot see anything beyond that in their puny little shells that they develop and stay in such as yourself! You are just parroting what every novice tells about Money. They cant use these gift cards. All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. Also withdrawing profits consistently so that if a crash comes you are ahead of the game and only playing with the markets money by withdrawing at minimum what you already invested. Good points. Here's my direct negative experience with Pete, Mr. Money Mustache that may give insight into the MMM divorce. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Now, with that moral sermon out of the way, we might as well talk about why Bitcoin has become such a big thing, so we can separate the usefulness of the underlying technology called Blockchain, from the mania about how people have turned Bitcoin it into a big dumb lottery. It is called being informed about reality.. Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. The Vigilante What is stupid is dogmas and cults lead by undocumented know-it-all type of guys. And EVERYONE is posting, podcasting, and reporting on it. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). This is because society is nothing but an abstract grouping of individuals. January 4, 2018, 7:28 am. The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. I really enjoyed the MMM article but I strongly disagreed with the part about gold. There are third-party solutions, but they add complexity. The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. But I hope the good times continue for a long while! , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? Its trust is the full force of the weapons and arsenal behind it. 100% agree. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. January 4, 2018, 4:25 pm. This MMM article seems almost contradictory to what has become an investment philosophy that reciprocates with many people. Bitcoin is a universal currency and is not here to just replace your USD alone! Maybe a couple years from now when the mortgage is paid off and we have some play money/money we can afford to lose. You basically have to first deposit a lot of money (as a reserve) onto bitcoin exchange sites, which themselves are only loosely regulated and would probably become insolvent if bitcoin crashed. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. They are very valuable and the price is sure to rocket! January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. Vijay, its okay. Id love to know what your background is. Ive been watching this with fascination as its been a while since we have seen a hype and crash investment (because we only know which way this is going to go, right)??? So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. and we live in the middle of it. Its diversification. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. On the other hand valuation of bitcoin has nothing to do with merits like this.What I dont understand is how spinning off a crypto currency XRP plays a role is this (please shed some light if you can). But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices.. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? A boy named Sue Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Because An investment is something that has intrinsic value.. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! I think your point about time wasted is very accurate. Heck no. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. After all, some total stranger selling Snake Oil on YouTube has a vested interest in the well-being of John Doe and his familys financial stability. It is the main currency by which you can obtain other cryptocurrencies. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Andre Kostolany. January 5, 2018, 8:29 pm. Rather like italicising. Ten years later and the price is still nowhere near that prior high, with it currently trading around $60. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. The potential upside outweighs the risk of the initial cost. Bitcoin and other Cryptos are attractive for that reason and that why people spread this misinformation about it to sway people from backing it. Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Take a look around. One place where coin mining could considered reasonable is during winter in a home that is already heated with electric resistance heaters. Mr. Money Mustache's argument easily boils down to the soundbyte that "bitcoin's price is fundamentally unpredictable, which makes it a terrible investment decision.". Probably not, because life is better and wealthier when you arent living a life of crime. Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. I know a lot of people in the DOTCOM bubble in the 2000s that were too focused on maximizing profits and lost most of their wealth on paper after the tech crash. 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