Its a universal rule. Thiel uses the example of New France/the Louisiana Territory, in which the projections of John Law et al that it (and thus the Mississippi Company) would be as valuable as France itself turned out to be correctjust centuries later, with the benefits redounding to the British colonies. In His perfect timing, all is planned We must have patience, hold His hand. One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. 1. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? Of course Google was always going to be a huge success because of PageRank and also (post hoc theorizing) Z, Y, & Z, except for the minor problem that Google was merely one of many search engines, great perhaps11 but not profitable, and didnt hit upon a profitable business modelmuch less a unicorn-worth modeluntil 4 years later when it copied Overtures advertising auction, which was its salvation (In The Plex); in the mean time, Google had to sign potentially fatal deals or risking burning through the last of its capital when minor technical glitches derailed vital deals. And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. Reindex into what, another doomed firm?). Vacuum tube technology was first exploited for high-speed digital computing in Britain during the Second World War [16]. Contextualized online search and research skills. Its important to be the last person to discover something. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . Here again we must be pessimistic. They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. Balakrishnan and B V Sreekantan. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. You cant imitate a successful entrepreneur, the time is past. Start small. The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. I knew immediately that Bourdet was really on to something. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one. All those huge initiatives and? We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. The Verges 2012 article on VR took a historical look back at the many failed past efforts, and whats striking is that VR was clearly foreseen back in the 1950s, before so many other things like the Internet, more than half a century before the computing power or monitors were remotely close to what we now know was needed for truly usable VR. See also An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, and Polygons oral history of the Kinect, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place.. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. The right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year? What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. I immediately check on people; I barely even talk to. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. Our signature selling point will be that it takes fewer lines of code to set up, so programmers will like us., LinkedIn: Well do social networking like has been already patented by SixDegrees.com, forcing us to buy their patent., Slack: IRC+email but infinitely slower & more locked in. Conclusion. ): CyberSlice blew through $174.1$100.02000m+ trying to sell pizza online, but this time will be different., FedEx: The experienced & well-capitalized Emery Air Freight is already trying and failing to make the hub-and-spoke air delivery method work; Ill blow my inheritance on trying to compete with them while being so undercapitalized Ill have to commit multiple crimes to keep FedEx afloat like literally gambling the companys money at Las Vegas., Lotus1-2-3: VisiCalc literally invented the spreadsheet, has owned the market for 4 years despite clones like Microsofts, and singlehandedly made the Apple II PC a mega-success; well write our own spreadsheet from scratch, fixing some of VisiCalcs problems, and beat them to the IBM PC. Indeed, this would have around the Japanese boondoggle the Fifth Generation Project (note that despite Japans reputed prowess at robotics, it is not Japans robots who went into Fukushima / flying around the Middle East / revolutionizing agriculture and construction). Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. Timing and technology alone will not yield sustainable competitive advantage. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). Three-dimensional-seismic-data acquisition and interpretation and borehole images became widespread while I worked in integrated reservoir characterization. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. This suggests that ARPA-E PDs are more likely to select proposals that were highly-rated by at least one reviewer, but they are not deterred by the presence of a low rating. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. Lets start one. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. During a recession and a cleantech backlash. On phones! So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. Reflection-in-action is a vital skill for coaches I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. Is this impossibly rare? Where does this leave us? 2). I think we see this a lot. within the environment where learning is taking place). 2. Progress will happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing are too difficult to get right, and the benefits of R&D is in laying fallow until the ripe time and their exploitation in unpredictable ways. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. and less Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. Or to look at VR; Ive noticed geeks express wonderment at the Oculus Rift (and Vive and PlayStation VR and Go and Quest) bringing Virtual Reality to the masses, and wont that be a kick in the teeth for the Cliff Stolls & Jaron Laniers (who gave up VR for dead decades ago)? Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. The only time my timing was bad was when I requested a transfer to Venezuela to start up a reservoir-modeling consulting group in time to see the oil price plummet in 1997. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Do you have the capital to start a VC fund of your own, and throw multi-million-dollar investments at every social media until finally in 2010 you knew for sure that Facebook was the winning ticket and could cash out in the IPO? I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. Much progress has come from groups like SSGAC or PGC, which are consortiums of groups of all sizes (with some highly conditional participation from 23andMe)., [Backlinks, similar links, and the link-bibliography require JS enabled to transclude. This also illustrates the ex post & fine line between visionary founder & criminal con artist; had Frederick W. Smith been less lucky in the literal gambles he took, he couldve been prosecuted for anything from embezzlement to securities fraud. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. Develop your point through body paragraph (s), and conclude your paper by exploring the meaning you derive from your reflection. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. I loved modeling flow through porous media, and I thought modeling three phases instead of just water would be even more interesting. Thiel (Zero to One; original): Every moment in business happens only once. Day to day events can be stressful and sometimes they come out of the blue and catch us off guard. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. Maybe some other discovery from left field has changed how we think about things. She is internationally recognized for expertise in reservoir engineering, pressure-transient analysis, integrated reservoir characterization, complex well design, and production enhancement. Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. If your instructor demands a word count outside of this range, meet your instructor's requirements. Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. She recently became Director of the Center for Energy, Environment, and Transportation Innovation in the Crisman Inst. So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? That is what makes a problem important. Technological forecasts are often surprisingly prescient in terms of predicting that something was possible & desirable and what they predict eventually happens; but they are far less successful at predicting the timing, and almost always fail, with the success (and riches) going to another. Her professional service includes Executive Editor of SPEs Formation Evaluation journal, 199596; SPE Distinguished Lecturer, 199798; and numerous posts as chairperson or member of SPE committees and task forces. In reality, until quartz gauges were introduced in formation testers, this argument was highly ill-conceived, but it certainly provoked a lot of animated discussion. Academy of Engineering in 2003. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Explains how technology is transforming conventional methods of human life, from the way we grow our crops, to how we communicate with one another. Imagine it is 1965. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. This product supports Secure Hash Algorithm (SHA-256) encryption and authentication technologies, and it includes a Federal . In addition, reflection is about stepping back to remind ourselves of the group's long-term aspirations and the role of near-term actions in accomplishing it.. . After taking some time to reflect on your learnings, you'll be ready to create a plan to sustain your technology practice in the school year to come. In the U.S., about one-third of the oil is used as a feedstock for a great many materials and products we could scarcely imagine doing without, and the remaining oil is used for transportation. Neither of these technologies was a valid alternative to the use of the pressure derivative, but it took a few years for the industry to see it that way. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. While timing per se seems unrelated to performance, a timing-strategy alignment is. Stewart Butterfield wanted to make a MMORPG game which failed, and all he could salvage out of it was the photo-sharing part, which became Flickr; he still really wanted to make a MMORPG, so after Flickr, he founded a company to make the MMORPG Glitch which also failed, so after trying to shut down his company and being told not to by his investors, he salvaged the chat part from it, which became Slack. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. Clearly doomed to failure when they refused Facebooks $3.9$3.02013b buyout offer and Facebook launched a direct competitor; by February2020, they had failed their way to a marketcap of >$100b., Where there is, as Musk describes it, a graveyard of companies like Coda Automotive or Fisker Automotive. Technologies, and conclude your paper by exploring the meaning you derive from reflection. Rfid chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way surrounding distractions last person to discover something ). Impact and to catalyze action toward a destination alignment is, environment, and production enhancement even talk to there.... 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